| Election name | 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election |
|---|---|
| Country | Alaska |
| Election date | November 8, 2022 |
| Previous election | 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election |
| Previous year | 2018 |
| Next election | 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election |
| Next year | 2026 |
| Candidate 1 | Mike Dunleavy |
| Party 1 | Republican Party (United States) |
| Running mate 1 | Nancy Dahlstrom |
| Popular vote 1 | 132,632 |
| Percentage 1 | 50.29% |
| Candidate 2 | Les Gara |
| Party 2 | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Running mate 2 | Jessica Cook |
| Popular vote 2 | 63,851 |
| Percentage 2 | 24.21% |
| Candidate 3 | Bill Walker |
| Party 3 | Independent |
| Running mate 3 | Heidi Drygas |
| Popular vote 3 | 54,668 |
| Percentage 3 | 20.73% |
| Before election | Mike Dunleavy |
| Before party | Republican Party (United States) |
| After election | Mike Dunleavy |
| After party | Republican Party (United States) |
| Turnout | 44.40% |
The 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Alaska. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Dunleavy won re-election to a second term, becoming the first Republican governor to be re-elected to a second term since Jay Hammond in 1978 and the first governor, regardless of political affiliation, to be re-elected to a second term since Tony Knowles in 1998.[1]
Following voter approval of Ballot Measure 2 during the 2020 Alaska elections, this was the first gubernatorial election in Alaska held under a new election process. All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022,[2] and the top four candidates advanced to the general election.[3]
In addition to Dunleavy, Democratic former state representative Les Gara, independent former governor Bill Walker, and Republican Kenai Peninsula Borough mayor Charlie Pierce advanced to the general election.[4] In the general election, Dunleavy narrowly received the majority of votes in the first round, preventing an instant runoff.
Primary election
Republican Party
Advanced to general
- Mike Dunleavy, incumbent governor[5]
- Running mate: Nancy Dahlstrom, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Corrections and former state representative[6]
- Previous running mate: Kevin Meyer, incumbent lieutenant governor[5] (withdrew December 28, 2021)[7]
- Charlie Pierce, mayor of the Kenai Peninsula Borough[8]
Eliminated in primary
- David Haeg, hunting guide[10]
- Waynette Coleman, nurse[10]
- Christopher Kurka, state representative[11]
- Bruce Walden, veteran and author[14]
- Running mate: Tanya Lange, social service worker[14]
Declined
Democratic Party
Advanced to general
- Les Gara, former state representative[16]
- Running mate: Jessica Cook, teacher[14]
Declined
- Mike Navarre, former mayor of the Kenai Peninsula Borough and former state representative (endorsed Walker)[17]
Libertarian Party
Eliminated in primary
- William S. "Billy" Toien, nominee for governor in 2010 and 2018[18]
- Running mate: Shirley Rainbolt[18]
Alaskan Independence Party
Eliminated in primary
- John Howe, machinist and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020[10]
- Running mate: Shellie Wyatt[10]
Independents
Advanced to general
- Bill Walker, former governor[18]
- Running mate: Heidi Drygas, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development[18]
Eliminated in primary
- William Nemec, former Denali Borough Assembly member[10]
- Running mate: Ronnie Ostrem[10]
Declined
- Alyse Galvin, public education advocate and candidate for in 2018 and 2020[19] (running for state house)[20]
- Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[19][17] (ran for U.S. House)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Mike Dunleavy (R) | Les Gara (D) | Charlie Pierce (R) | Bill Walker (I) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[21] | July 20–25, 2022 | 1,253 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 22% | 5% | 23% | 9%[c] | – |
| Lake Research Partners (D)[22][A] | May 5–11, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 24% | 5% | 18% | 3% | 10% |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[23] | July 26, 2022 | |
| Inside Elections[24] | July 22, 2022 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] | June 29, 2022 | |
| Politico[26] | April 1, 2022 | |
| RCP[27] | January 10, 2022 | |
| Fox News[28] | May 12, 2022 | |
| 538[29] | August 25, 2022 | |
| Elections Daily[30] | November 7, 2022 |
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Link | Participants | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Participant Absent Non-invitee Invitee Withdrawn | |||||||
| Mike Dunleavy | Bill Walker | Les Gara | Charlie Pierce | ||||
| 1 | October 11, 2022 | Civic and Convention Center | [31] | ||||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | RCV count | Mike Dunleavy (R) | Les Gara (D) | Charlie Pierce (R) | Bill Walker (I) | Undecided / Not Ranked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dittman Research[32] | October 21–25, 2022 | 403 (LV) | – | 1 | 47% | 25% | 4% | 23% | — |
| 2 | 51% | 25% | Elim | 24% | — | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[33] | September 25–27, 2022 | 1,282 (LV) | ± 3.0% | ||||||
| 1 | 43% | 28% | 7% | 21% | — | ||||
| 2 | 48% | 28% | Elim | 23% | — | ||||
| 3 | 53% | 47% | Elim | Elim | — | ||||
| 3*[d] | 52% | Elim | Elim | 48% | — | ||||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[34][B] | September 6–11, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | [e] | N/A[f] | 45% | 24% | 6% | 17% | 8% U |
| 1 | 49% | 26% | 7% | 19% | 8% NR | ||||
| 2 | 54% | 26% | Elim[g] | 20% | 10% NR | ||||
| 3 | 59% | 41% | Elim | Elim[h] | 13% NR | ||||
| Alaska Survey Research[35] | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 44% | 26% | 11% | 20% | — |
| 2 | 51% | 26% | Elim | 23% | — |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | RCV count | Mike Dunleavy (R) | Les Gara (D) | Natasha von Imhof (R) | Bill Walker (I) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[36] | October 22–27, 2021 | 969 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | 43% | 22% | 8% | 28% | — |
| 2 | 46% | 24% | Elim | 30% | — | ||||
| 3 | 49% | Elim | Elim | 51% | — |
Mike Dunleavy vs. Les Gara
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Mike Dunleavy (R) | Les Gara (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hays Research Group (I)[37][C] | July 22–24, 2022 | 613 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 45% | — |
Mike Dunleavy vs. Bill Walker
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Mike Dunleavy (R) | Bill Walker (I) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hays Research Group (I)[37][C] | July 22–24, 2022 | 613 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 50% | — |
Results
Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Anchorage
- Kodiak Island (largest city: Kodiak Island)
- Bristol Bay Borough (largest city: Naknek)
- Lake & Peninsula Borough (largest city: Newhalen)
- Aleutians West Census Area (largest city: Unalaska)
- Aleutians East Borough (largest city: Akutan)
- Bethel Census Area (largest city: Bethel)
- Dilingham Census Area (largest city: Dilingham)
- North Slope Borough (largest city: Utqiaġvik)
- Northwest Arctic Borough (largest city: Kotzebue)
- Kusilvak Census Area (largest city: Hooper Bay)
- Nome Census Area (largest city: Nome)
- Yukon–Koyukuk Census Area (largest city: Fort Yukon)
- Prince of Wales–Hyder Census Area (largest city: Craig)
- Petersburg
Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Independent
- Juneau
- Sitka
- Hoonah–Angoon Census Area (largest town: Hoonah)
- Haines Borough (largest census-designated place: Haines)
- Yakutat
See also
- 2022 United States gubernatorial elections
- 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska
- 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska
- 2022 Alaska Senate election
- 2022 Alaska House of Representatives election
- 2022 Alaska elections
Notes
- ^ Suspended her campaign and endorsed Dunleavy on October 25, 2022 after allegations of sexual harassment against Pierce but remained on the ballot.[38]
- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Howe and Kurka with 3%; Toien with 2%; Haeg with 1%; Nemec and Walden with 0%
- ^ Hypothetical scenario with Dunleavy and Walker as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
- ^ The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%.
- ^ Standard polling question.
- ^ Pierce eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 70% to Dunleavy, 7% to Walker, 3% to Gara, and 20% not ranked further.
- ^ Walker eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 67% to Gara, 13% to Dunleavy, and 20% not ranked further.
Partisan clients
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Gara's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by AARP
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Walker's campaign
References
- ^ Bohrer, Becky (November 25, 2022). "Mike Dunleavy is 1st Alaska governor reelected since '98". Associated Press. Retrieved November 25, 2022.
- ^ "Alaska Division of Elections, Primary Election Info". Archived May 4, 2022 at the Wayback Machine. Retrieved December 10, 2021.
- ^ Kitchenman, Andrew (November 18, 2020). "Alaska will have a new election system: Voters pass Ballot Measure 2". KTOO (FM). Archived November 18, 2020 at the Wayback Machine. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
- ^ "Live Alaska Governor Election Results 2022 – NBC News". www.nbcnews.com. Retrieved 2022-10-03.
- ^ Brooks, James (August 13, 2021). "Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy will run for re-election in 2022". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved August 14, 2021.
- ^ "Alaska Governor Picks Nancy Dahlstrom as Running Mate". US News. AP. May 23, 2022. Retrieved February 14, 2023.
- ^ "Alaska Lt. Gov. Kevin Meyer will not run for reelection in 2022". Anchorage Daily News
- ^ "Borough mayor files bid for Alaska governor". KDLL Public Radio for the Central Kenai Peninsula. January 21, 2022.
- ^ Poux, Sabine & Soldotna, KDLL- (March 9, 2022). "Charlie Pierce picks Edie Grunwald as running mate in Alaska governor's race"
- ^ "2022 Primary Candidate List". Alaska Division of Elections. Archived from the original on March 30, 2017. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
- ^ Kitchenman, Andrew (November 29, 2021). "Conservative Wasilla Rep. Kurka launches bid for Alaska governor". Alaska Public Media. Archived November 30, 2021 at the Wayback Machine. Retrieved November 30, 2021.
- ^ "Republican candidate for Alaska governor Christopher Kurka chooses Homer man as running mate". Anchorage Daily News
- ^ Gunzburger, Ron. "Online Guide to Alaska Elections, Candidates & Politics". Politics1
- ^ "Democratic governor candidate Les Gara picks teacher from Palmer as his running mate". Anchorage Daily News
- ^ Brooks, James (February 15, 2022). "Anchorage Sen. Natasha von Imhof will not run for reelection or other office in 2022". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved June 16, 2022.
- ^ Kitchenman, Andrew (20 August 2021). "Former state Rep. Les Gara becomes fourth candidate for Alaska's governor". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "Gara and Walker begin 2022 campaigns for governor to unseat Dunleavy". Anchorage Daily News
- ^ Brooks, James (August 17, 2021). "Former Alaska Gov. Bill Walker will run again for governor in 2022 as an independent". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved August 17, 2021.
- ^ Coleman, J. Miles (March 11, 2021). "2022 Gubernatorial Races: A Baseline – Sabato's Crystal Ball"
- ^ "Former US House candidate Alyse Galvin to run for Alaska Legislature". 28 December 2021.
- ^ Alaska Survey Research
- ^ Lake Research Partners (D)
- ^ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 19, 2021.
- ^ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "Alaska Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. 12 May 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Archived from the original on June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
- ^ Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
- ^ Youtube
- ^ Dittman Research
- ^ Alaska Survey Research
- ^ Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
- ^ Alaska Survey Research
- ^ Alaska Survey Research
- ^ Hays Research Group (I)
- ^ Maguire, Sean (October 25, 2022). "Edie Grunwald suspends campaign as lieutenant governor candidate over Pierce sexual harassment allegations". Retrieved October 26, 2022.
External links
Official campaign websites
- Mike Dunleavy (R) for Governor Archived October 27, 2021 at the Wayback Machine
- Les Gara (D) for Governor Archived September 24, 2021 at the Wayback Machine
- Charlie Pierce (R) for Governor Archived August 4, 2022 at the Wayback Machine
- Bill Walker (I) for Governor